Favre and the Packers

I don’t think we talk about Favre enough so I thought I’d add to the growing debate about whether the Packers would have done better with Favre this year than they did with Rodgers.  It is just as easy to give the QB all the blame when things go bad as it is to give the QB all the credit when things go good. So let me say it here, Reggie White may have been far more important to the Packers winning the Super Bowl in ’96 than Brett Favre. It almost seems blasphemous to say, but it is true, Reggie White’s contribution was huge.

That isn’t to say that Favre’s contribution wasn’t big either. In all honesty, I don’t think we would have won that Super Bowl without him, but notice in ’97 we still had Favre in his prime, but White’s age caught up to him and we couldn’t win even with Favre.

The first thing that started to come out was that the one thing that Favre has that Rodgers doesn’t is the ability to win those close games. I don’t disagree that in his prime, Favre was able to win these games. He wasn’t three years ago when the Packers went 4-12 but well we don’t like to talk about that. I suppose if you think about last year it might be true… the Packers had 3 total close games last year, we won two of them… technically he had a 66% success rate in close games last year right?

Again in 2006 he was 66% success rate, again only three close games, two of which we won. In 2005, he was a miserable 2-6 which is a staggering 25% success rate (yes he is that good at times). In 2004, he was much better at 4-1 which was the most close games he won in a single season over the last year. And finally in 2008, with the Jets, he has been 3-1 with close games. So over the last 5 years he has been 13-10 for close games. For those wondering, I consider a close game to be within six or fewer points.

This isn’t that impressive in reality. Rounding up that is 57% success rate on close games. This stat may hold true however when you actually look at Rodgers this season with close games sitting in at 0-6. If you think that QB alone can get over the hump, then using Favre’s record in close games over the last 5 years, we should be 3-3 in those games, which means we would be in the playoffs hunt right?

Well I don’t personally think this is a bit misleading. You see, Favre had a different issue than Rodgers… Favre either won big or he lost big. 2005 was statistically different for him not only because it was the only year in which he lost more than he won, but tht he had so many in the first place. Notorious for throwing the interceptions, Favre has the innate ability of losing games all by himself. Yes, he has moments of greatness that put him in a league even above the greats before him, but it has always been the moments of horridness that have chained him down.

To look at how his interceptions may have hurt his teams I decided to look at 2 stats… 3+ games and games where he had more INTs than TDs. 3+ INT games: 2008 – 1, 2007 – 0, 2006 – 2, 2005 – 3, 2004 -3. More INTs than TDs: 2008 – 8, 2007 – 5, 2006 -7, 2005 – 9, and 2004 – 6. So statistically speaking he has about 2 3+ INT games, and about 7 games where INTs is higher than TDs per year. Now how this works out to wins and losses is that 3+ games Favre has a record of 3-5 and when he throws more Ints than TDs he has a record of 11-24. Or he has a record of 38% while throwing 3+ and 31% when throwing more INTs than TDs over the last 5 years.

Rodgers meanwhile granted has only had one year versus Favre’s 5, but this year he has had 2 3+ interception games (never over 3 and I’d like to note that Favre has 3-4 4+ games over the last 5 years) for an 0-2 record, and not surprisingly he has only 2 games where he has more INTs than TDs and they are the same two games so same record. Thus, while he has a lower winning percentage when throws the INTs, it happens so few times that it doesn’t affect him the way that it affects Favre.

Not only that is the fact that the ONLY stat that Favre does better than Rodgers is completion Percentage and that is likely only because the Packers have been losing since the bye week and this has greatly lowered Rodgers’ stats (he was higher before the bye). Rodgers does however have more yards, more TDs, fewer INTs, a higher QB rating and all this with fewer attempts and fewer completions than Favre.

The other major effect people say that Favre had that Rodgers doesn’t have is leadership, though the only thing they really have to exemplify that difference is the record (and we will happily shoo that nasty 4-12 record under the rug when we make this argument). Reading this article made me realize how sadly seperated Favre has become in recent years. He had completely isolated himself, he took showers by himself in his own private room, he never spoke with anyone, he didn’t attend off-season camps, he was completely introverted. This is his leadership?

This isn’t even who Fave was in the 96-98 seasons in which he won MVPs in. In those particular seasons, he was outgoing, always joking with his offensive line, and even defensive players. He always seemed very close to everyone on the field and off. Over the last couple of years, he often complained about the fact that he didn’t relate with anyone else but I gotta wonder if he actually tried.  He seemed to do everything he could to stay away from the team and looking at what his fellow players say about Rodgers in contrast, it makes me want to say that I’m happy that we got some leadership out of our QB finally. It seems like we haven’t had it for some time.